I'm doing a little project of recreating the history of soccer, year by year, championship by championship. Currently I'm focusing on Brazil (because it is my country) and England (because it's the oldest and most traditional one). The way I simulate a championship is:
- I gather the real data of matches played in the championship. So if I'll simulate Premier League 18/19, I'll get the 380 real scores.
- I use R packages to turn these scores and outcomes into individual team attack and defense strengths to calculate scoreline probabilities between teams.
- I generate a score for each match based on its chance to happen (so Watford will hardly beat City 4-0, they have the same probability to do it in the simulation and in real life)
- Excel calculates the final table.
It works perfectly for club competitions, but it's really hard to do it with national teams because they don't play each other very much. Elo ratings is the only common thing for everybody. Elo formula allows us to calculate Win/Loss probability, but it doesn't even allow draws. The author of this post mentions in the text that the Club Elo website has an article about how to convert Elo rating difference between opponents to expected goals. This would be enough for me, but the article is nowhere to be found anymore…
Anyone knows how to convert Elo ratings to W/D/L probability at least? Thanks!